United States | Message to Turkey

[Odinson]

Hawkens looked visibly uncomfortable as the Prime Minister mentioned bringing up the loaned amount to $40,000,000. He wasn't even sure if Sweden and Poland would keep to their $10-billion commitments and, if they did, he was certain that they would actually want to be paid their interest. Depending on how they wanted their payments done, it might not be feasible because too large of payments would skyrocket the Turkish deficit and stall paying of the debt. The situation was indeed complicated and Turkey did need more money, but Hawkins felt that "free money" was not the solution. He could tell that Ayşe was uncomfortable talking about this since she had very, very little to bargain with.

"Prime Minister, first off, I want to underscore that I am not here to humiliate you. I know that the idea of a bailout - regardless of how it is done - is not something to be proud of, but I think that history will remember you fondly if you do what needs to be done to get Turkey out of debt. There are a lot of politicians out there in this country who we both know would not even be willing to have this conversation with me so frankly... If you want my opinion, I don't think that the increasing the bailout to $40-billion is realistic. In fact, I think that getting the bailout to be $30-billion is already a Hail Mary - sorry, that's an American euphemism that means 'long shot.'

"Anyway, I understand that it is critical to get Turkish debt below 200%, preferably below 150% as soon as possible. I don't think that a $40-billion bailout is realistic, and I don't think that it would be the best way out of this mess anyway. I can only imagine that you and your government are terrified of being beholden to my government or, for that matter, any other government. It's pretty easy to see that democracy in Turkey would be undermined if your government felt that it had to answer to its debt-holders as much as it had to answer to the Turkish people... There are some alternative methods of getting Turkey to procure money that my team and I have thought about. I will be conservative, and we can go from there...

"First, let's assume a less than best-case scenario with the bailout. Let's assume that one of our partners drops out, and it ends up being a $20-billion bailout, but that is still money that your government gets. Next, the U.S. Air Force would be interested in stationing aircraft and forces at Incirlik Air Base. If that is something that your government would be willing to entertain, the Federal Government would be willing to pay a price to use the base for a certain period of time. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that your government allowed the United States to have a permanent Air Force installation at Incirlik Air Base, and that your government gave the United States Navy and Coast Guard the right to refuel and replenish at Aksaz Naval Base... That agreement, provided that it was terms and a timetable that we could agree to, could be worth another $5-billion of pure profit. That is $25-billion to Turkey, $5-billion of which is not debt.

"Prime Minister, next, I would highly recommend that you look to trade, because that is where our government is looking. I have been given full authority from the White House to negotiate a trade agreement between the United States and Turkey. We should be able to easily establish a free trade agreement, but on top of that we should establish several trade routes that should be a benefit to both of our countries. The United States is currently shopping options of a trade company to use for these trade deals, but I think you would be surprised of how capable they will be in increasing GDP," he said.

"This gets you more than half way to the $40-billion that you need... Best-case scenario, this gets you three-fourths of what you need. What do you think? Is there anything here that you do not like?" he asked.

Jay

 

[Jay]

Ayşe nodded, listening to Aiden speak. "As someone who has spent an unhealthy amount of time at Harvard Crimson games, I can appreciate the Hail Mary reference." She gave him a weak smile.

"I will not lie when I say that the bailout is a very politically toxic issue, and while most of our political and economic elites know it is necessary, they are unable to find the courage to take the right steps." Ayşe crossed her legs, leaning back a bit as she picked her nails slowly.

"While I appreciate your kind intent, there is no scenario where I accept a conditional bailout and walk away in the short term unscathed. They are already calling me a traitor for cutting our overbloated defense budget and I doubt accepting money from countries that a few years ago were bombing us will do me any favors." Ayşe let out a soft sigh.

"But, I didn't come into office with some grand ambition of ruling or the benefits of high office. I came into office to serve the Turkish people and stop this humiliating suffering I see every day on the streets." Ayşe said, giving a soft nod as Aiden shifted the conversation to alternatives to the full bailout.

"I recognize that there is a level of realism needed," Ayşe began with. "I appreciate that you have presented alternatives that can help us." Ayşe nodded as Aiden continued to speak. "I will explore the potential of rehosting American forces at Incirlik and a refuel and refit agreement for Aksaz. While I am personally in favor, I am worried I have limited political capital in parliament." Ayşe conceded.

"However, back to the economic part of this, I think that the 25 billion is helpful, and I think once other countries see the seriousness of the United States, it'll make it easier for us to request additional assistance."

Ayşe looked at Aiden's plate, seeing that it was slowly depleting, and she would begin pouring him another round, not wanting her guest to leave the residence hungry. While she was pouring him another serving, she spoke about trade.

"We are in the process of negotiating trade agreements with Spain, Poland, and Eran. I do believe we will have those agreements completed by April, and I can say that expanding our trade ties is a crucial piece of our economic recovery plan. I hope I can share in confidence that I plan to introduce a Mediterranean economic union that, beyond the economic benefits, will help to restore stability in the region after a decade of crisis and instability." Ayşe said before placing the pouring spoons down and sitting back.

"I do hope that we will be able to conclude our trade talks as soon as possible, but I believe that we can achieve meaningful results for both our countries."

Odinson